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Machinery industry: continue to strong recovery than industry market

浏览次数: 日期:2012-12-13 13:23:25

摘要:

Engineering machinery industry to a strong recovery. Construction machinery industry in December 2009 to continue a strong recovery, in

  

Engineering machinery industry to a strong recovery. Construction machinery industry in December 2009 to continue a strong recovery, industry a strong recovery mainly comes from the infrastructure investment and real estate investment growth gradually picks up, at the same time, export have signs recovery. In December, excavator and truck crane sales year-on-year growth respectively 136.7 � 5 � � 125.3 � F � � 2009 1-12 month cumulative growth respectively 23.1 � 5 � � 27.2 � F � � loader and bulldozer sales year-on-year growth respectively 81.5 � 5 � � 45.9 � F � � annual accumulated were down 13.2 � 5 � � 0.7 � F � � by narrow year-on-year respectively 5.1 and 3.0%. From December export data to see signs of recovery have, each child products export in December are created in 2009 high monthly performance.

  Regional planning, indemnificatory housing and export recovery will provide the new development of the industry. The recent national guidelines to control credit and regulating the real estate policy although cause market for engineering machinery industry development prospects of worry, but we remain positive about the prospects for the development of the industry. There are three main reasons: 1, since 2009 the state council issued a high frequency of 12 regional planning, the regional planning of construction will gradually for the domestic construction machinery needs to cultivate more growth pole, 2, the government's real estate policy mainly to control prices, not blind press; At the same time indemnificatory housing new strength is very huge, estimated in the future real estate investment to the industry of the driving effect won't drop; 3, 2009 engineering machinery export has greatly decreased, but the international competitiveness of Chinese enterprises is not drop back, is expected to rise along with the global economic recovery, industry exports will be restorative growth.

  Maintain 2010 industry revenue growth will be higher than the 2009 expected. Domestic demand aspects: regional planning to carry out the will bring new infrastructure projects, and at the same time, considering the 2009 years have started the project will continue to construction, infrastructure investment is expected to growth will still hit 15 � and � �; And the indemnificatory housing is expected to be 2010 years of real estate investment stabilizer, according to the citic group macro forecast, 2010 real estate investment growth is twenty � and � � comprehensive consideration of construction and real estate investment next year, we judge engineering machinery domestic demand will still maintain a good momentum of growth is expected to domestic demand growth in 2010 is about 17 � 5 � � right. Now: we think that along with the global economy picking up, industry export growth will reach the twenty � and � �.

  Maintain "than the" industry rating. According to the current performance prediction, engineering machinery industry leading enterprises A shares in 2010 and 2011 respectively the average PER 15 times and 12 times. Current valuations have in history valuation bottom area, industry valuation levels were significantly undervalued. Considering the engineering machinery in the coming years good development prospect, we continue to engineering machinery industry "than the" investment rating. Still maintain sany, zoomlion, xugong, hill pushed shares "buy" rating, maintain liugong, xiamen work shares, anhui force and mountains and rivers intelligent "around" rating. In Hong Kong, investors can focus on the machine (00300 HK), weichai (02338 HK), China high speed drive (00658 HK).

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